Lay It Down

Posted by wynn on Nov 25, 2009 in Great Reads, Laydowns | 0 comments

I am in three-way action on the button with J-8 diamonds.

Normally, I would not play J-8 anything, but I am on the button against two players I know I can outplay with the right flop.

First to act is a young kid that can’t be more than a few hours older than the mandatory 21 to get in the casino. He has a deer-in-the-headlights look.

Next to act is a young female rounder that I know will give me respect.

I put Mr. 21 on a big hand like K-K or Q-Q.

Ms. Rounder has a hand like a weak ace in the blind.

The flop comes J-8-4. All hearts.

I flopped top two pair, but I know it won’t be any good by fifth street if another heart hits the board.

Mr. 21 bets the pot and Ms. Rounder raises.

With two players in the hand, it would be bad etiquette for me to talk. Here is what ran through my head:

Best case scenario is I have three jacks and three eights left in the deck to beat a flush. I am a 60% dog on the turn and an 88% dog on the river.

Worst case scenario, Mr. 21 flopped a set of jacks and I am drawing dead.

Neither player has a flush yet, but Ms. Rounder most likely has the ace of hearts. If Mr. 21 is holding a red wired hand, they each have 7 outs to hit the flush.

If I am ahead right now with top two pair, they each have roughly a 30% chance of hitting a flush on the turn and 15% on the river.

If the kid has a hand like K-K or Q-Q, he has two more outs to make a winning hand.

I am clearly ahead. The math says come over the top.

My gut says both players are now pot committed.

I only have $25 invested in the hand. Do I want to put another $200 in and risk getting drawn out on?

I fold.

Mr. 21 goes all-in and Ms. Rounder calls.

The turn card is another heart.

Mr. 21 shows two red kings. Ms. Rounder shows Ah-8c and rakes the pot.

I grin knowing my read was right on and the fold was the right decision.

Mr. 21 then goes on a rant about getting kings cracked. So, I tell him nothing matters until the flop and I laid down top two pair where they were both big underdogs to win the hand and that they both got lucky catching another heart.

Mr. 21 left the game and Ms. Rounder stayed out of my pots for the rest of the night.

Sometimes a big laydown that turns out to be the right decision earns respect at the table.